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داده های International Country Risk Guide ICRG

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راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری ICRG چیست؟

  International Country Risk Guide

ICRG از سال ۱۹۸۰ بصورت ماهانه داده هایی را منتشر می کند و مشتریان بین المللی را با رتبه بندی هایی که بر ریسک سیاسی، ریسک اقتصادی و ریسک مالی جهانی خود در ۱۴۰ بازار توسعه یافته، در حال ظهور و مرزی تأثیر می گذارد، فراهم کرده است. تشکیل سیستم مبتنی بر هشدار اولیه، بیش از ۳۰ معیار برای ارزیابی این انواع ریسک استفاده می شود. متدولوژی ICRG به طور مداوم توسط محققان در صندوق بین المللی پول مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است و در چنین نشریاتی از جمله Barron، The Economist و The Wall Street Journal تحسین شده است.

تهیه امار از Bankscope ، World Bank و ICRG

برای تهیه داده های مورد نیازتان از پایگاههای داده Bankscope ، World Bank و ICRG با گیگاپیپر مکاتبه کنید.
Bankscope ICRG Bankscope
 درخواست آمار ICRG راهنمای بین‏ المللی ریسک کشوری International Country Risk Guide icrg data نیاز به آمارهای ICRG گیگاپیپر
درخواست آمار ICRG راهنمای بین‏ المللی ریسک کشوری International Country Risk Guide

معرفی International Country Risk Guide

International Country Risk Guide

Alternative Titles : ICRG

Description : Four datasets from the International Country Risk Guide comparing political, financial and economic risk for countries worldwide for the period 1984-2019:

Table 2B Composite Risk Ratings, Table 3B Political Risk Points by Component, Table 4B Financial Risk Points by Component, Table 5B Economic Risk Points by Component.

Data sets can be downloaded to Excel.

Type : Numeric Data
Coverage : 1984-2019

More Information : ICRG Methodology

Subjects : Government, Politics & Law
Political Science
Statistics and Data Sets
Statistical (Macro-Level) Data
Social Sciences
Statistics and Data Sets
Statistical (Macro-Level) Data

تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوری

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درخواست نیاز به آمارهای ICRG  را از طریق یکی از راههای ارتباطی برای ما ارسال کنید.

 

تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوریگیگاپیپرگیگاپیپر
تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوری

 تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوریگیگاپیپر  تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوریگیگاپیپر

 تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوریگیگاپیپر

 تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوریگیگاپیپر  تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشوریگیگاپیپر  تهیه امارهای ICRG | داده های راهنمای بین ‏المللی ریسک کشور گیگاپیپر

 

 

 

 

متدولوژی International Country Risk Guide

International Country Risk Guide Methodology
The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) rating comprises 22 variables in three
subcategories of risk: political, financial, and economic. A separate index is created for each of
the subcategories. The Political Risk index is based on 100 points, Financial Risk on 50 points,
and Economic Risk on 50 points. The total points from the three indices are divided by two to
produce the weights for inclusion in the composite country risk score. The composite scores,
ranging from zero to 100, are then broken into categories from Very Low Risk (80 to 100 points)
to Very High Risk (zero to 49.9 points).


The Political Risk Rating includes 12 weighted variables covering both political and social
attributes. ICRG advises users on means of adapting both the data and the weights in order to
focus the rating on the needs of the particular investing firm

.
ICRG incorporates a “Type II” forecast (see Chapter 1, Introduction, of PRS textbook
The
Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis
) in which its experts provide a current
assessment, a one-year assessment, and a five-year assessment. The projections of future
conditions are framed in “best” case and “worst” case scenarios. This provides managers with a
probabilistic future in which to make judgments about risk management or insurance needs.
Country analyses in ICRG include descriptive assessments and economic data (listed on this site
under “Historical Analyses”). ICRG provides ratings for 140 countries on a monthly basis, and
for an additional 26 countries on an annual basis under a different title.

—Llewellyn D. Howell, Ph.D

فایل انگلیسی متدولوژی ICRG

icrgmethodology

متغیرهای مختلف که داده های ICRG براساس ان گزارش داده می شود :

The PRS Group Guide to Data Variables

Variable Name Definition
Administrative Subdivisions Number and type of administrative districts in the country.
Agricultural Work Force Percentage of the work force employed in agricultural production.
Area Total area of the country in square kilometers.
Budget Balance as % of GDP Central government budget balance for a given year, expressed as a percentage of GDP.
Budget Expenses ($bn) Nonrepayable and nonrepaying payments by governments, plus government acquisition of claims on others (loans and equities), less repayments of lending and sales of equities previously purchased.
Budget Revenues ($bn) Nonrepayable and nonrepaying government receipts, plus grants received from other governments (domestic or foreign) and international institutions.
Bureaucracy Quality (L) Institutional strength and quality of the bureaucracy is a shock absorber that tends to minimize revisions of policy when governments change. In low-risk countries, the bureaucracy is somewhat autonomous from political pressure. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Capital Designated seat of government of the country.
Capital Investment ($bn) Annual value of gross fixed capital formation.
Change in Real Wages (%) Annual percent change in real wages.
Civil Disorder The potential risk to governance or investment from mass protest, such as anti-government demonstrations, strikes, etc.
Civil War The actual or potential risk of civil war (where a rebel force, which holds territory, is in armed conflict with the security forces of the government, and where both forces are citizens of the state in which the conflict occurs).
Commentary on Elections National election schedule and terms of office; the date of the most recent election; and the date of the next election or the date by which the next election must be held, as appropriate.
Composite Risk Rating Composite Political, Financial, Economic Risk Rating for a country (CPFER) = 0.5 ( (Political Risk + Financial Risk + Economic Risk) Ranging from Very High Risk (00.0 – ۴۹.۵) to Very Low Risk (80.0 – ۱۰۰). The higher the points, the lower the risk.
Constitution Date of promulgation of the country’s current constitution.
Consumer Confidence The level of consumer confidence vis-à-vis credible surveys, where available, or approximations based on employment trends, economic growth and investment, etc.
Contract Viability The risk of unilateral contract modification or cancellation and, at worst, outright expropriation of foreign owned assets.
Corruption (F) A measure of corruption within the political system that is a threat to foreign investment by distorting the economic and financial environment, reducing the efficiency of government and business by enabling people to assume positions of power through patronage rather than ability, and introducing inherent instability into the political process. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Country Name COUNTRY NAME
Cross-border Conflict Actual or potential conflict with another nation state that does not affect the whole nation and which can range in severity from cross-border armed conflict and incursion to territorial claims subject to civil mediation or litigation.
Currency Change Annual percent change in the national currency value in relation to the USD; for the USD, the value in relation to the EUR (prior to 2000, to the DM).
Current Account ($bn) Total balance of payments on goods and services and all transfer payments: the difference between (a) exports of goods and services, plus inflows of unrequited official and private transfers, and (b) imports of goods and services, plus unrequited transfers to the rest of the world.
Current Account as % of GDP Balance on the current account of the balance of payments expressed as a percentage of GDP.
Current Account as % of XGS Balance on the current account of the balance of payments expressed as percentage of total exports of goods & services (XGS).
Current Account Forecast Forecast of Current Account average for next year and for subsequent five-year period.
Debt Service as % of XGS Foreign debt service expressed as a percentage of the sum of estimated total exports of goods and services.
Debt Service Ratio Year’s sum of interest and principal repayments on external public and publicly guaranteed debt as a percentage of XGS.
Democratic Accountability (K) A measure of, not just whether there are free and fair elections, but how responsive government is to its people. The less responsive it is, the more likely it will fall. Even democratically elected governments can delude themselves into thinking they know what is best for the people, regardless of clear indications to the contrary from the people. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Direct Investment Risk Ratings of risk to foreign investment in wholly owned subsidiaries, joint ventures, and other forms of direct asset ownership. Risk ratings for 18-month and five-year forecast periods, expressed both as alpha grades and as numerical scores, ranging from the least risk at A+ (<0.25) to the most risk at D- (>2.75). Also included are the previous alpha grades for both forecast periods.
Domestic Economic Problems ۵-year risk variable that takes into account such economic factors as GDP per capita, real GDP growth, inflation, budget balance as % of GDP, unemployment and capital investment as % GDP.
Economic Risk Rating A means of assessing a country’s current economic strengths and weaknesses. In general, where strengths outweigh weaknesses, a country will show low risk and where weaknesses outweigh strengths, the economic risk will be high. To ensure comparability between countries, risk components are based on accepted ratios between the measured data within the national economic/financial structure, and then the ratios are compared, not the data. Risk points are assessed for each of the component factors of GDP per head of population, real annual GDP growth, annual inflation rate, budget balance as a percentage of GDP, and current account balance as a percentage of GDP. Risk ratings range from a high of 50 (least risk) to a low of 0 (highest risk), though lowest de facto ratings are generally near 15.
Election after Next Plan and timing for election after next.
Energy Consumption The amount of primary energy consumed per person in trillion BTU.
Energy Consumption Per Head The amount of primary energy consumed in quadrillion BTU.
Equity Restrictions ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account policies and motivations related to equity ownership, including any requirements for national participation or prohibitions against equity ownership that might exist now and in the forecast period, including underlying factors and considerations for international investors.
Ethnic Groups Ethnics groups with which significant percentages of the population identify themselves.
Ethnic Tensions (J) A measure of the degree of tension attributable to racial, national, or language divisions. Lower ratings (higher risk) are given to countries where tensions are high because opposing groups are intolerant and unwilling to compromise. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Exchange Controls ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account controls on currency exchange affecting international business operations and the movement of international funds and funding.
Exchange Rate Currency value in relation to the US dollar (or euro for US dollar; prior to 2000, to the deutschmark) and applicable date.
Exchange Rate (Local) Average currency value in relation to the USD; for the USD, the value in relation to the EUR (prior to 2000, to the DM).
Exchange Rate Stability Annual percentage change in the exchange rate of the national currency against the USD (against the EUR in the case of the USD; prior to 2000, to the DM).
Exchange System Description of the exchange characteristics of the currency.
Export Market Risk Ratings of risk faced by exporters to the country, especially risks related to market conditions, barriers to imports, and delays or difficulties in receiving payment for goods. Risk ratings for 18-month and five-year forecast periods, expressed both as alpha grades and as numerical scores, ranging from the least risk at A+ (<0.25) to the most risk at D- (>2.75). Also included are the previous alpha grades for both forecast periods.
Exports ($bn) Year’s value of merchandise exports, measured free-on-board.
External Conflict (E) A measure of both the risk to the incumbent government from foreign action, ranging from non-violent external pressure (diplomatic pressures, withholding of aid, trade restrictions, territorial disputes, sanctions, etc) to violent external pressure (cross-border conflicts to all-out war). The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: War, Cross-Border Conflict, and Foreign Pressures.(Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Financial Risk Rating A means of assessing a country’s ability to pay its way by financing its official, commercial and trade debt obligations. To ensure comparability between countries, risk components are based on accepted ratios between the measured data within the national economic/financial structure, and then the ratios are compared, not the data. Risk points are assessed for each of the component factors of foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, foreign debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services (XGS), current account as a percentage of XGS, net liquidity as months of import cover, and exchange rate stability. Risk ratings range from a high of 50 (least risk) to a low of 0 (highest risk), though lowest de facto ratings are generally near 20.
Financial Transfer Risk Ratings of risk from financial transfer, nonconvertibility from the local currency to the desired foreign currency, and the transfer of foreign currency out of the country. The transfer could be for the payment of exports, repatriation of profits, capital or dividends. Risk ratings for 18-month and five-year forecast periods, expressed both as alpha grades and as numerical scores, ranging from the least risk at A+ (<0.25) to the most risk at D- (>2.75). Also included are the previous alpha grades for both forecast periods.
Fiscal/Monetary Expansion ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account fiscal and monetary policies, expansionist tendencies, current policies and those likely to be pursued by three alternative regime scenarios, especially deficit spending and control over credit, including such factors as recent trends in inflation and economic growth.
Foreign Debt ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account the country’s borrowing practices, need for borrowing, attitudes toward borrowing and the willingness of public and private international sources to provide funds. Commentary includes a discussion of policies and attitudes likely under the three alternative regime scenarios during the forecast period, and might also cover aid from other countries and from international financial institutions.
Foreign Debt as % GDP Gross foreign debt expressed as a percentage of GDP.
Foreign Direct Investment ($bn) One year’s investment by foreign entities or citizens in domestic business.
Foreign Pressures Actual or potential risk posed by pressures brought to bear on the government by one or more foreign states to force a change of policy. Such pressures can range from diplomatic pressures, through suspension of aid and/or credits, to outright sanctions.
Forex Reserves ($bn) Year-end value of foreign currency holdings (excluding gold) retained by the central bank for purposes of exchange intervention or settlement of intergovernmental claims.
Freedom of the Press Rating (0-3, least to most control), and information about the level and characteristics of government control of the press.
GDP (Nominal, $bn) Nominal value of the total final output of goods and services produced within a country’s territorial jurisdiction, regardless of the foreign or domestic ownership of the source of the production.
Government Cohesion The extent to which the executive/cabinet is coalesced around the government’s general policy goals.
Government in Economy Sectors of the economy in which the government exercises control or ownership.
Government Officials & their Posts Listing of major government officials. Priority is given to the following: de facto leader of the country (where applicable), Deputy Prime Minister, Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Development, Energy, Finance, Foreign Affairs, Industry, Interior, Labor.
Government Stability (A) A measure of both of the government’s ability to carry out its declared program(s), and its ability to stay in office. The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: Government Unity, Legislative Strength, and Popular Support.(Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Head of Government Administrative leader of the government, and the year of accession.
Head of State Formal leader of the country, and the year of the leader’s accession.
Imports ($bn) Year’s value of merchandise imports, measured fob.
Industrial Work Force Percentage of the work force employed in industrial production and commerce.
Infant Deaths Infant deaths per 1,000 live births.
Inflation (%) Annual average percent change in the consumer price index.
Inflation Forecast Forecast of Inflation average for next year and for subsequent five-year period.
Int’l Liquidity (months import cover) Annual net liquidity expressed as months of import cover and calculated as the official reserves of the individual countries, including their official gold reserves calculated at current free market prices, but excluding the use of IMF credits and the foreign liabilities of the monetary authorities.
Internal Conflict (D) A measure of political violence in the country and its actual or potential impact on governance. The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: Civil War/Coup Threat, Terrorism/Political Violence, and Civil Disorder. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
International Economic Problems ۵-year risk variable that takes into account such economic factors as current account, GDP per capita, debt service, and currency exchange rates.
Investment Profile (C) A measure of the factors affecting the risk to investment that are not covered by other political, economic and financial risk components. The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: Contract Viability/Expropriation, Profits Repatriation, and Payment Delays. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Investment Restrictions ۵-year risk variable that takes into account policies and potential policies under three regime scenarios that do or could affect direct foreign investment by wholly owned subsidiaries, joint ventures, and other forms of direct asset ownership, factoring in the political support and opposition of key political actors.
Labor Costs ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account the direct personnel cost of producing goods and services — government policies and restrictions, pressures from labor, and attitudes of business toward wage increases — at the time of publication and over the forecast periods.
Languages Languages spoken by the population of the country.
Law & Order (I) Two measures comprising one risk component. Each sub-component equals half of the total. The “law” sub-component assesses the strength and impartiality of the legal system, and the “order” sub-component assesses popular observance of the law. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Legislative Strength Whether the government can realize its policy program through the legislative arm of government.
Legislature Types of national legislative bodies and the distribution of seats among the major political parties.
Literacy Percentage of persons aged 15 years and over who can read and write.
Local Operations Restrictions ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account restrictions on procurement and restrictions on labor or management personnel for international business operations.
Military in Politics (G) A measure of the military’s involvement in politics. Since the military is not elected, involvement, even at a peripheral level, diminishes democratic accountability. Military involvement might stem from an external or internal threat, be symptomatic of underlying difficulties, or be a full-scale military takeover. Over the long term, a system of military government will almost certainly diminish effective governmental functioning, become corrupt, and create an uneasy environment for foreign businesses. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Money Supply (M1, $bn) Year-end stock of money in the economy. Components of M1 include currency in circulation, commercial bank deposits, NOW accounts, credit union share drafts, mutual savings bank demand deposits, and nonbank travelers checks.
Most Likely Regimes Forecasts and probabilities of the three most likely regime scenarios in 18 months and five years. Probability scores for three regimes in each forecast period always total 100%. Primary differences in regimes include key personnel in the top policy-making positions, resulting from a purge, election, coup d’etat, reorganization, or high-level resignation.
Next Election Plan and timing for next election.
Non-tariff Trade Barriers ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account government policies or the tendencies of key political actors policies or tendencies that might affect imports. These elements might include such factors as protectionist sentiment, licensing requirements, quotas, restricted or banned goods, as well as underlying factors, such as lack of foreign currency, nationalistic motivations, and employment problems, that could act as barriers to trade.
Official Country Name Official Name of Country.
Official Language Officially designated language(s) of the government.
Payment Delays ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account factors affecting the timeliness or delays in payments to those exporting to the country, such as foreign exchange position, poor economic position, or formal and informal government policies and motivations.
Payment Delays The risk associated with receiving and exporting payments from the country (impediments include poor liquidity, exchange controls, an inadequate banking system, etc.)
Per Capita GDP ($) Ratio of nominal GDP to population.
Per Capita GDP ($) Ratio of nominal GDP to population.
Political Actors Key institutions, individuals and groups having an effect on the climate for international business in a country. A biography and background information appear in the Country Report, available from the publisher of this database.
Political Risk Rating A means of assessing the political stability of a country on a comparable basis with other countries by assessing risk points for each of the component factors of government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, external conflict, corruption, military in politics, religious tensions, law and order, ethnic tensions, democratic accountability, and bureaucracy quality. Risk ratings range from a high of 100 (least risk) to a low of 0 (highest risk), though lowest de facto ratings generally range in the 30s and 40s.
Popular support The level of support for the government and/or its leader, based on credible opinion polls.
Population Midyear estimate of the total number of people living in the country.
Population Growth Average annual percentage change in the population over the last five years.
Poverty The level of poverty vis-à-vis credible sources (e.g., IMF, World Bank, CIA Factbook)
Principal Exports Country’s primary exports and main export partners.
Principal Imports Country’s primary imports and main import partners.
Real GDP Growth (%) Annual change in estimated GDP at constant prices.
Real GDP Growth Forecast (%) Forecast of Real GDP Growth average for next year and for subsequent five-year period.
Real GDP Growth Rate Annual change in estimated GDP at constant prices.
Religions Religions observed by the population of the country.
Religious Tensions (H) A measure of religious tensions arising from the domination of society and/or governance by a single religious group — or a desire to dominate — in a way that replaces civil law by religious law, excludes other religions from the political/social processes, suppresses religious freedom or expressions of religious identity. The risks involved range from inexperienced people imposing inappropriate policies to civil dissent or civil war. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Repatriation To what extent can profits be transferred out of the host country (impediments include exchange controls, excessive bureaucracy, a poor banking system, etc.)
Repatriation Restrictions ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account restrictions, policies, and motivations related to the cross-border movement of profit, dividends, and capital by international business operations.
Risk for Budget Balance Ranging from high % of 4.0+ with risk points at 10.0, to a low of -30.0 with 0.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for Current Account as % of GDP Ranging from high % of 10.0+ with risk points at 15.0, to a low of -40.0 or below with 0.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for Current Account as % of XGS Ranging from high % of 25.0+ with risk points at 15.0, to a low of less than -120.0 with 0.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for Debt Service Ranging from high % of >85.0 with risk points at 0.0, to a low of 0.0 with 10.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for Exchange Rate Stability Ranging from high % change of either 0.0 – ۹.۹ appreciation or depreciation of 0.1-4.9 with risk points at 10.0, to a midpoint of either appreciation at 50.0+ or depreciation of 30.0 – ۳۴.۹ with risk points at 5.0 to a low depreciation of 100.0+ with 0.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for Foreign Debt Ranging from high % of >200.0 with risk points at 0.0, to a low of 0.0 with 10.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for GDP Growth Risk points determined by expressing this number as a percentage of the average of the estimated total GDP of all the countries covered by ICRG, then assigning risk points, ranging from high % of 6+ with risk at 10.0, to a low of <0.4 with 5.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for Inflation Ranging from high % of 130+ with risk points at 0.0, to a low of 0.0 with 10.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for International Liquidity Ranging from high % of 15.0+ with risk points at 5.0, to a low of 0.0 with 0.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Risk for Per Capita GDP Risk points determined by expressing this number as a percentage of the average of the estimated total GDP of all the countries covered by ICRG, then assigning risk points ranging from high % of 250+ with risk at 5.0 points, to low of <10 with O.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Service Work Force Percentage of the work force employed in service-oriented production.
Socioeconomic Conditions (B) A measure of the socioeconomic pressures at work in society that could constrain government action or fuel social dissatisfaction. The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: Unemployment, Consumer Confidence, and Poverty.(Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)
Tariff Barriers ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account government policies on imports, tariff levels and ranges, and underlying factors that relate to the levels of nationalism and protectionism.
Taxation Discrimination ۱۸-month risk variable that takes into account tax incentives and disincentives for direct foreign investment, including underlying economic factors that might affect positive and/or negative tax discrimination toward international business.
Terrorism The actual or potential risk of terrorism (where forces opposed to the government carry out violent acts against civilian or state targets to achieve a political goal). The fundamental difference between a terrorist campaign and a civil war is that the former do not hold and administer territory within a nation state.
Total Foreign Debt ($bn) The year-end value of gross indebtedness by private and public sector domestic borrowers to foreign entities.
Trade Restrictions ۵-year risk variable that takes into account tariff and non-tariff barriers to imports, including, as well as the political support or opposition of key political actors.
Turmoil Ratings and Forecasts Ratings of risk to international business people or property, as well as current level, 18-month forecasts of change under three regime scenarios, base level along with 5-year forecasts under three regime scenarios. Takes into account violence from political groups or foreign governments operating within a country or from an external base, including riots, politically motivated strikes (but not including legal, non-violent strikes), demonstrations, terrorism, guerrilla activities, and civil or international war.
Unemployment The official rate as defined by credible sources (e.g. IMF, World Bank, CIA Factbook); significant levels of underemployment or employment in the informal economy in emerging markets can affect the rating.
Unemployment Rate (%) Year’s average percentage of the labor force without work during the period.
Unions Percentage of the work force that belongs to labor unions organized outside of government control.
Urban Growth Average annual percentage change in urban population.
Urban Population Percentage of the population living in urban areas.
War Actual or potential armed conflict with another nation borne out of the desire of either combatant state to subjugate the governance of people and/or acquire territory of the other, primarily through the use of its own armed forces.
Youth Percentage of the population under 15 years of age.

راهنمای متغیرهای PRS Group

The PRS Group Guide to Data Variables

Nonrepayable and nonrepaying payments by governments, plus government acquisition of claims on others (loans and equities), less repayments of lending and sales of equities previously purchased.Institutional strength and quality of the bureaucracy is a shock absorber that tends to minimize revisions of policy when governments change. In low-risk countries, the bureaucracy is somewhat autonomous from political pressure. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.) Ranging from Very High Risk (00.0 – 49.5) to Very Low Risk (80.0 – 100). The higher the points, the lower the risk.A measure of corruption within the political system that is a threat to foreign investment by distorting the economic and financial environment, reducing the efficiency of government and business by enabling people to assume positions of power through patronage rather than ability, and introducing inherent instability into the political process. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)

Total balance of payments on goods and services and all transfer payments: the difference between (a) exports of goods and services, plus inflows of unrequited official and private transfers, and (b) imports of goods and services, plus unrequited transfers to the rest of the world. Risk ratings for 18-month and five-year forecast periods, expressed both as alpha grades and as numerical scores, ranging from the least risk at A+ (<0.25) to the most risk at D- (>2.75). Also included are the previous alpha grades for both forecast periods. prior to 2000, to the DM). Risk ratings for 18-month and five-year forecast periods, expressed both as alpha grades and as numerical scores, ranging from the least risk at A+ (<0.25) to the most risk at D- (>2.75). Also included are the previous alpha grades for both forecast periods.

A measure of both the risk to the incumbent government from foreign action, ranging from non-violent external pressure (diplomatic pressures, withholding of aid, trade restrictions, territorial disputes, sanctions, etc) to violent external pressure (cross-border conflicts to all-out war). The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: War, Cross-Border Conflict, and Foreign Pressures.(Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)

To ensure comparability between countries, risk components are based on accepted ratios between the measured data within the national economic/financial structure, and then the ratios are compared, not the data. Risk points are assessed for each of the component factors of foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, foreign debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services (XGS), current account as a percentage of XGS, net liquidity as months of import cover, and exchange rate stability. Risk ratings range from a high of 50 (least risk) to a low of 0 (highest risk), though lowest de facto ratings are generally near 20. The transfer could be for the payment of exports, repatriation of profits, capital or dividends. Risk ratings for 18-month and five-year forecast periods, expressed both as alpha grades and as numerical scores, ranging from the least risk at A+ (<0.25) to the most risk at D- (>2.75). Also included are the previous alpha grades for both forecast periods.

Commentary includes a discussion of policies and attitudes likely under the three alternative regime scenarios during the forecast period, and might also cover aid from other countries and from international financial institutions. Such pressures can range from diplomatic pressures, through suspension of aid and/or credits, to outright sanctions.Year-end value of foreign currency holdings (excluding gold) retained by the central bank for purposes of exchange intervention or settlement of intergovernmental claims.Nominal value of the total final output of goods and services produced within a country’s territorial jurisdiction, regardless of the foreign or domestic ownership of the source of the production.A measure of both of the government’s ability to carry out its declared program(s), and its ability to stay in office.

The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: Government Unity, Legislative Strength, and Popular Support.(Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)Annual net liquidity expressed as months of import cover and calculated as the official reserves of the individual countries, including their official gold reserves calculated at current free market prices, but excluding the use of IMF credits and the foreign liabilities of the monetary authorities.A measure of the factors affecting the risk to investment that are not covered by other political, economic and financial risk components. The risk rating assigned is the sum of three subcomponents: Contract Viability/Expropriation, Profits Repatriation, and Payment Delays. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)

These elements might include such factors as protectionist sentiment, licensing requirements, quotas, restricted or banned goods, as well as underlying factors, such as lack of foreign currency, nationalistic motivations, and employment problems, that could act as barriers to trade. Risk ratings range from a high of 100 (least risk) to a low of 0 (highest risk), though lowest de facto ratings generally range in the 30s and 40s.A measure of religious tensions arising from the domination of society and/or governance by a single religious group — or a desire to dominate — in a way that replaces civil law by religious law, excludes other religions from the political/social processes, suppresses religious freedom or expressions of religious identity.

The risks involved range from inexperienced people imposing inappropriate policies to civil dissent or civil war. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.) The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.) The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.) The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)

The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)0.4 with 5.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.) The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.) The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.)10 with O.0 points. The higher the points, the lower the risk. (Refer to ICRG Methodology for maximum points for this variable, as well as for related formulas for calculating risk.) The fundamental difference between a terrorist campaign and a civil war is that the former do not hold and administer territory within a nation state. Takes into account violence from political groups or foreign governments operating within a country or from an external base, including riots, politically motivated strikes (but not including legal, non-violent strikes), demonstrations, terrorism, guerrilla activities, and civil or international war.

Table 2B Historical – Political, Economic, Financial & Composite Risk
Table 3B Historical – Political Risk Components
Table 3Ba Historical – Political Risk Subcomponents (since May 2001)
Table 4B Historical – Financial Risk Components
Table 5B Historical – Economic Risk Components
Table 7 Historical – GDP per Head of Population
Table 8 Historical – Real GDP Growth
Table 9 Historical – Inflation Rate
Table 10 Historical – Budget Balance (as a % of GDP),
Table 11 Historical – Current Account (as a % of GDP),
Table 12 Historical – Foreign Debt (as a % of GDP),
Table 13 Historical – Debt Service (as a % of XGS),
Table 14 Historical – Current Account (as a % of XGS),
Table 15 Historical – International Liquidity (Months of Import Cover),
Table 16 Historical – Exchange Rate Stability,
Table 17 Historical – Foreign Exchange Rates,
All ICRG Historical Data (includes all listed above except 3Ba and 17)

 برخی از مقالاتی که از شاخص‌های ICRG استفاده کرده اند :

۱- بررسی تأثیر ساختارهای نهادی بر رشد اقتصادی با روش GMM داده‌های تابلویی پویا

در مقاله از میانگین ساده هفت شاخص از شاخص‌های ICRG در دوره ۲۰۰۹-۱۹۸۳ و نیز میانگین شش شاخص حکمرانی خوب در دوره ۲۰۰۹-۱۹۹۶ به عنوان شاخص‌های نهادی برای بررسی در سطح جهانی و نمونه کشورهای مختلف استفاده شده است.

شاخص­ راهنمای ریسک بین‌المللی کشورها

شاخص ICRG شامل رتبه‌بندی ۲۲ متغیر در سه زیر گروه مختلف، ریسک سیاسی، ریسک مالی و ریسک اقتصادی است. در این مقاله از میانگین ساده هفت شاخص ثبات دولت، شرایط اجتماعی – اقتصادی، چشم­انداز سرمایه‌گذاری، فساد، حاکمیت نظم و قانون، پاسخ‌گویی دموکراتیک و کیفیت سیستم اداری، از میان دوازده شاخص ریسک سیاسی به عنوان شاخص نهادی استفاده می­شود که یکی از دلایل استفاده از این شاخص، پوشش بسیار مناسب ابعاد مختلف نهادی توسط این شاخص­هاست. از آن­جا که مقدار هر یک از این شاخص­های هفت­گانه متفاوت است، برای یکسان نمودن وزن آن­ها، همه آن­ها را بین اعداد صفر و ده نرمال کرده  و سپس با جمع آن­ها و میانگین­ گیری از این هفت شاخص (ICRG)، یک شاخص کلی نهادی برای آزمون تجربی ایجاد خواهد شد. بزرگ‌تر بودن این شاخص به معنای وضعیت مناسب­تر نهادی و پایین­تر بودن مقدار آن وضعیت نامناسب نهادی را نشان می­دهد. از دیگر حسن­های شاخص­های ICRG نسبت به اکثر شاخص­های دیگر آن است که آمارهای آن برای دوره زمانی نسبتاً طولانی مدتی (۲۰۰۸ – ۱۹۸۳) موجود است.

۲- معرفی و نقد شاخص راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG)

برای دریافت رایگان فایل معرفی و نقد شاخص راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) کلیک کنید.

به منظور اندازه گیری میزان ریسک سیاسی در کشورها ICRG شیوه های مختلفی وجود دارد که در این بین یکی از معتبرترین طبقه بندی‌ها، مربوط به راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری International Country Risk Guide است( راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری ۲۲ متغیر را در سه زیر مقوله ریسک رتبه بندی می نماید ریسک سیاسی، ریسک مالی و ریسک اقتصادی که برای هر کدام زیر شاخص های جداگانه ای محاسبه می شود).

در روش شناسی ICRG شاخص ریسک سیاسی مبتنی بر ۱۰۰ امتیاز است و هر چقدر که امتیاز کشوری به عدد ۱۰۰ نیزدیکتر شود نشان از پایین بودن ریسک سیاسی در آن کشور است. مولفه های ریسک سیاسی به شرح جدول زیر می باشند؛ توالی و امتیاز هر مولفه نیز آورده شده است.

 یکی از معتبرترین طبقه بندی‌ها، مربوط به راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری International Country Risk Guide است
یکی از معتبرترین طبقه بندی‌ها، راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری International Country Risk Guide است

برای دسترسی به امارهایPolitical and economic risk data from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG و دانلود دیتاستهای ان در فرمت اکسل ، با گیگاپیپر مکاتبه کنید.

امارهای ICRG

گیگاپیپر به عنوان همکار پژوهشگران، تحلیل گران و برنامه ریزان ایرانی سعی دارد تمام داده ها و گزارشات مورد نیازتان را فراهم کند.

شاخص راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) International Country Risk Guideگیگاپیپر
شاخص راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG)

Produced monthly since 1980, ICRG has furnished an international clientele with ratings affecting political risk, economic risk and financial risk for its universe of ۱۴۰ developed, emerging, and frontier markets.  Forming the basis of an early warning system, over 30 metrics are used to assess these types of risk. The ICRG methodology is used consistently by researchers at the IMF, and has been acclaimed in such publications as Barron’s, The Economist, and The Wall Street Journal.

Among the added benefits of a subscription to ICRG are:

  • The longest running data series for political risk and country risk analysis, globally;
  • Data which is easy to customize and merge with in-house risk rating systems; and,
  • Country risk data that includes Type-II forecasts over one- and five-year time horizons for added specificity in managing risk.

A few of our products based upon the ICRG methodology:

  • International Country Risk Guide is published online, in print, and on CD-ROM.  Each monthly issue monitors 140 countries and includes more than ۱۰۰ pages of political, financial, and economic risk ratings. It offers analyses of events that affect the risk ratings in about 20-25 countries along with the economic and financial data underlying financial and economic risk ratings. The online and CD-ROM versions include the current issue and 12 months of previously published data.  All subscribers to ICRG also receive a monthly edition of the Global Maps of Political Risk,  pointing them to key changes in risk since the last issue.
  • ICRG Data including current data published in the monthly ICRG issue and historical data (risk ratings and economic statistics) back to 1984, are available separately in digital formats, and on CountryData Online (CDO).
  • Prepared ICRG Datasets offer average annual scores of selected ICRG risk ratings, giving academic researchers a more convenient and affordable way to purchase our risk scores.
  • International Country Risk Guide Annual is a seven-volume set published annually, designed for university libraries, to provide cost effective access to ICRG’s coverage of 140 countries over the previous twelve months. For more information on this and related publications for academia, please go to Academic Titles.
برای خرید داده های ICRG کشور ایران ، و کشورهای زیر ، از سال ۱۹۸۴ تا ۲۰۱۸ (آخرین سال موجود در موقع نوشتن این متن) با گیگاپیپر مکاتبه کنید.

خرید داده های ICRG

سه فایل Excel برای خرید داده های CountryData موجود است. لطفا با مطالعه توضیحات زیر ، بفرمایید کدام یک از سه فایل را نیاز دارید :

۱- CountryData-ICRG Risk-All Country-All Variables-All Year-All Month-2018

راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) International Country Risk Guideگیگاپیپر
ICRG Risk

 

کشورها :

کلیه داده های کشورهای زیر در فایل اکسل وجود دارد.

List of 140 countries monitored by International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)

 

Albania
Algeria
Angola
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Belarus
Belgium
Bolivia
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Congo
Congo, DR
Costa Rica
Côte d’Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Estonia
Ethiopia
Finland
France
Gabon
Gambia
Germany
Ghana
Greece
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Korea, DPR
Korea, South
Kuwait
Latvia
Lebanon
Liberia
Libya
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Mali
Malta
Mexico
Moldova
Mongolia
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
Somalia
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Suriname
Sweden
Switzerland
Syria
Taiwan
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Trinidad & Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
UAE
Uganda
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe

آلبانی الجزایر آنگولا آرژانتین ارمنستان استرالیا اتریش جمهوری آذربایجان باهاما بحرین بنگلادش بلغارستان بلغارستان بولیوی بوتسوانا برزیل برونئی بلغارستان بورکینافاسو کامرون کانادا شیلی چین کلمبیا کنگو کرواسی کوبا قبرس جمهوری چک جمهوری چک جمهوری دموکراتیک جمهوری دومینیکن شرق آلمان اکوادور مصر السالوادور استونی اتیوپی فنلاند فرانسه گابن گامبیا آلمان غنا یونان گواتمالا گینه گینه بیسائو گویان هائیتی هندوراس هنگ کنگ مجارستان ایسلند هند.

اندونزی ایران عراق ایرلند اسرائیل ایتالیا جامائیکا ژاپن اردن قزاقستان کنیا کره شمالی DPR کویت لتونی لبنان لیبریا لیبی لیتوانی لوکزامبورگ ماداگاسکار مالاوی مالزی مالزی مالت مکزیک مولدووا مغولستان مراکش موزامبیک میانمار نامیبیا هلند کالدونیای جدید نیوزیلند نیکاراگوئه نیجر نیجریه نروژ عمان پاکستان پاناما پاپوآ گینه نو پاراگوئه پرو فیلیپین لهستان پرتغال قطر رومانی روسیه عربستان سعودی سنگال صربستان صربستان و مونته نگرو سیرالئون سنگاپور اسلو .akia اسلوونی سومالی آفریقای جنوبی کره جنوبی اسپانیا سری لانکا سودان سورینام سوئد سوئیس سوریه تایوان تانزانیا تایلند تگو ترینیداد و توباگو تونس ترکیه امارات متحده عربی اوگاندا اوکراین بریتانیا ایالات متحده اروگوئه اتحاد جماهیر شوروی ونزوئلا ویتنام آلمان غرب یمن زامبیا زیمبابوه

متغیرهای ICRG

Variable
Bureaucracy Quality (L)
Civil Disorder
Civil War
Composite Risk Rating
Consumer Confidence
Contract Viability
Corruption (F)
Cross-border Conflict
Democratic Accountability (K)
Economic Risk Rating
Ethnic Tensions (J)
External Conflict (E)
Financial Risk Rating
Foreign Pressures
Government Cohesion
Government Stability (A)
Internal Conflict (D)
Investment Profile (C)
Law & Order (I)
Legislative Strength
Military in Politics (G)
Payment Delays
Political Risk Rating
Popular support
Poverty
Religious Tensions (H)
Repatriation
Risk for Budget Balance
Risk for Current Account as % of GDP
Risk for Current Account as % of XGS
Risk for Debt Service
Risk for Exchange Rate Stability
Risk for Foreign Debt
Risk for GDP Growth
Risk for Inflation
Risk for International Liquidity
Risk for Per Capita GDP
Socioeconomic Conditions (B)
Terrorism
Unemployment
War

سال های موجود :

داده ها از ۱۹۸۴ تا سال ۲۰۱۸ (در زمان نوشتن این متن تا اولین ماه ۲۰۱۸) موجود است.

۱۹۸۴ ۱۹۸۵ ۱۹۸۶ ۱۹۸۷ ۱۹۸۸ ۱۹۸۹ ۱۹۹۰ ۱۹۹۱ ۱۹۹۲ ۱۹۹۳ ۱۹۹۴ ۱۹۹۵ ۱۹۹۶ ۱۹۹۷ ۱۹۹۸ ۱۹۹۹ ۲۰۰۰ ۲۰۰۱ ۲۰۰۲ ۲۰۰۳ ۲۰۰۴ ۲۰۰۵ ۲۰۰۶ ۲۰۰۷ ۲۰۰۸ ۲۰۰۹ ۲۰۱۰  ۲۰۱۱ ۲۰۱۲ ۲۰۱۳ ۲۰۱۴ ۲۰۱۵ ۲۰۱۶ ۲۰۱۷ ۲۰۱۸

راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) International Country Risk Guideگیگاپیپر ICRG Risk راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) International Country Risk Guideگیگاپیپر ICRG Risk راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) International Country Risk Guideگیگاپیپر ICRG Risk راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) International Country Risk Guideگیگاپیپر

 ۲- CountryData-Economic Indicators-All Country-All Variables-All Year

داده های Economic Indicators شامل کلیه کشورهای لیست شده در بالا ، و از تاریخ ۱۹۸۴ تا اخر ۲۰۱۷ و شامل متغیرهای زیر می باشد.

راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) Economic Indicatorsگیگاپیپر
Economic Indicators

راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) Economic Indicatorsگیگاپیپر راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG) Economic Indicatorsگیگاپیپر

متغیرها

Budget Balance as % of GDP
Budget Expenses ($bn)
Budget Revenues ($bn)
Capital Investment ($bn)
Change in Real Wages (%)
Current Account ($bn)
Current Account as % of GDP
Current Account as % of XGS
Debt Service as % of XGS
Exchange Rate (Local)
Exchange Rate Stability
Exports ($bn)
Foreign Debt as % GDP
Foreign Direct Investment ($bn)
Forex Reserves ($bn)
GDP (Nominal, $bn)
Imports ($bn)
Inflation (%)
Int’l Liquidity (months import cover)
Money Supply (M1, $bn)
Per Capita GDP ($)
Real GDP Growth (%)
Total Foreign Debt ($bn)
Unemployment Rate (%)

۳- CountryData-Coplin-O’Leary PRS Forecasts (current only)-All Countries-All Variables

Coplin-O Leary PRS Forecasts راهنمای بین المللی ریسک کشوری (ICRG)گیگاپیپر
Coplin-O Leary PRS Forecasts

گیگاپیپر

گیگاپیپر

این داده ها در مارس ۲۰۱۸ دریافت شده و مربوط به سال ۲۰۱۷ می باشد. و  شامل متغیرهای زیر

Current Account Forecast
Real GDP Growth Forecast (%)
Inflation Forecast
Direct Investment Risk
Export Market Risk
Financial Transfer Risk
Domestic Economic Problems
Equity Restrictions
Fiscal/Monetary Expansion
Foreign Debt
International Economic Problems
Labor Costs
Non-tariff Trade Barriers
Payment Delays
Most Likely Regimes
Repatriation Restrictions
Tariff Barriers
Taxation Discrimination
Exchange Controls
Local Operations Restrictions
Turmoil Ratings and Forecasts
Investment Restrictions
Trade Restrictions
Political Actors
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